Probability

NUST NET Maths · Maths · Permutations, combinations and probability. The idea in plain words, the rules to remember, the mistake to avoid and a worked example, written and checked by Mega Lecture.

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The idea

When all outcomes are equally likely, the probability of an event is the number of favourable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. It always lies between 0 and 1, and an event and its complement add up to 1.

The addition rule is for "A or B". If the two events can happen together, the overlap must be subtracted once. The multiplication rule is for "A and B". For independent events simply multiply; when items are drawn without replacement, the second probability changes because one item has gone.

For "at least one", it is nearly always quicker to find the probability of none and subtract it from 1.

Rules to remember

Common mistake

Adding P(A) and P(B) for "or" without subtracting the overlap. Kings or hearts is 4/52 + 13/52 − 1/52 = 16/52, because the king of hearts would otherwise be counted twice.

Worked example

A bag contains 4 red and 6 blue balls. Two balls are drawn one after the other without replacement. The probability that they are of different colours is

  1. Red then blue: (4/10) × (6/9) = 24/90.
  2. Blue then red: (6/10) × (4/9) = 24/90.
  3. These two cases are separate, so add: 24/90 + 24/90 = 48/90 = 8/15.

Answer: 8/15

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