Correlation and regression

Maths: Analysis and Approaches · Statistics and probability. The idea in plain words, the rules to remember, the mistake to avoid and a worked example, written and checked by Mega Lecture.

Test this topic freeAll Maths: Analysis and Approaches topics

The idea

Bivariate data have two values for each item, plotted as points on a scatter diagram. Pearson's r measures how close the points are to a straight line. It runs from −1 to 1: the sign gives the direction and the size gives the strength. A strong correlation does not prove that one variable causes the other.

A regression line is the line of best fit found by calculation. It always passes through the mean point (x̄, ȳ). The line of y on x is used to estimate y from a given x. The line of x on y is used to estimate x from a given y.

An estimate inside the range of the data is called interpolation. Outside the range it is extrapolation and is unreliable.

Rules to remember

Common mistake

Students rearrange the line of y on x to estimate x from a given y. When a separate line of x on y is given, use that line and substitute the y-value straight into it.

Worked example

The regression line of y on x for some data is y = −1.5x + 80, and the mean of the x-values is 20. Find the mean of the y-values.

  1. The regression line passes through the mean point (x̄, ȳ).
  2. Substitute x = 20: ȳ = −1.5 × 20 + 80.
  3. ȳ = −30 + 80 = 50.

Answer: The mean of the y-values is 50.

Ask about this

Type what you are stuck on. The helper finds the explanation, worked examples and the notes to read, free and instant.

Read the full notes

Keep going

← Presenting and summarising dataProbability and combined events →Take a Maths: Analysis and Approaches test