Levels of analysis and foreign policy making

International Relations · Foundations. The idea in plain words, the rules to remember, the mistake to avoid and a worked example, written and checked by Mega Lecture.

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The idea

The levels of analysis are the places where we look for the cause of an event. The individual level looks at leaders: their personality, beliefs and perceptions. The state level looks inside the country: type of government, economy, public opinion, interest groups. The system level looks at the whole system: anarchy and the distribution of power.

Foreign policy is shaped by internal determinants (geography, resources, economy, history, leadership, public opinion) and external ones (the power structure, alliances, international law and organisations).

Graham Allison studied the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 and offered three models of how decisions are made: the rational actor, organisational process and bureaucratic politics models.

Rules to remember

Kenneth Waltz, 'Man, the State and War' (1959): three images of the causes of war = human nature, the state, the international system.
Graham Allison, 'Essence of Decision' (1971): three models applied to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Rational actor model: the state is one unit with clear, ranked goals; it picks the option with the best expected result.
Organisational process model: policy is the output of large organisations following standard operating procedures.
Bureaucratic politics model: policy is the result of bargaining among officials; 'where you stand depends on where you sit'.
Robert Putnam: the 'two-level game' links domestic approval and international bargaining.
Herbert Simon: satisficing. Irving Janis: groupthink.

Common mistake

Students mix up the organisational and bureaucratic models. Look for routines and standard procedures (organisational) or for rival officials bargaining for their own departments (bureaucratic).

Worked example

In a cabinet meeting the defence minister presses for air strikes, the finance minister for sanctions and the foreign minister for talks. The final policy is a compromise that none of them wanted in full. Which of Allison's models explains this best?

Each minister argues for the option that suits his or her own department.
The outcome comes from bargaining among them, not from one actor choosing the best option, so it is not the rational actor model.
No fixed routine or standard procedure produced the result, so it is not the organisational process model.

Answer: The bureaucratic politics model.

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